IRI Southeastern Europe Democracy Summit: Unified Support for Western Balkan, Ukrainian Integration into Europe

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The International Republican Institute (IRI) held its fifth annual Southeastern Europe Democracy Summit (SEE|DEM) in Brussels, Belgium on Tuesday, 16 April, where policymakers and thought leaders from the Western Balkans, Ukraine, the European Union (EU) and the United States came together in support of building resilient democracies and greater Euro-Atlantic integration.   

Vice President of the European Commission for Values and Transparency Věra Jourová, European Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement Oliver Várhelyi, Minister Adea Pirdeni from Albania, Minister Maida Gorčević from Montenegro, Ukrainian Mayors Oleksandr Syenkevych of Mykolaiv and Yuriy Bova of Trostianets, and IRI President Daniel Twining took part in the summit.

EU and NATO integration dominated the discussions at the summit. Commissioner Várhelyi said, “There is a wake-up call that if Europe does not deliver enlargement for its own sake, for its own interest, Europe might run the risk of losing long-term peace, stability and security.” 

Vice President Jourová also commented on Ukraine’s European integration, underscoring the value of EU membership to the next generation of Ukrainians stating, “Young people in Ukraine want to enter the EU, not because of the standard of living and nice cars, but because of the freedoms and perspective it brings.”  

A recent IRI poll of six countries in the Western Balkans that was released ahead of the summit showed broad support for joining the European Union (EU) and strong majorities who view Russia’s war on Ukraine as unjustified.  

IRI President Daniel Twining expressed IRI’s support for Western Balkan leaders as they work towards European accession saying,  “In the face of regional challenges, our collective resolve must be to fortify the foundations of democratic pluralism and good governance, to root out corruption at every level, to advance ethnic reconciliation, and to ensure the seamless integration of states into the fabric of international institutions.” 

On EU-enlargement for the Western Balkans, Várhelyi went on to say, “Our answer to the Western Balkans is a clear ‘yes.’ And it has been made very clear for them from the very beginning of 2019, and now we are working even harder to be ready to welcome them.”

IRI’s Director for Europe, Paul McCarthy, stated “SEE|DEM underlines the importance of international cooperation in tackling the key issues of conflict prevention and democratic reform.” 

In its fifth year, SEE|DEM provides a unique platform for exchanges between policymakers, experts, journalists, and thought leaders from the Western Balkans, fostering much-needed multi-sector dialogue among leaders on the most pressing issues facing the region.  

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Kyiv, Ukraine – The latest public opinion survey in Ukraine conducted by the International Republican Institute’s (IRI) Center for Insights in Survey Research (CISR) finds strong majorities believe that Ukraine will defeat Russia in the war and are optimistic about the future. Support for joining the European Union (EU) and NATO is high.  

Ukrainians are overwhelmingly optimistic about their future. When asked if Ukraine will win the conflict with Russia, 88% responded “yes.” Additionally, 80% said the future of their country looks “rather promising.”

“Despite more than two years of relentless attacks from Russia, Ukrainians continue to believe that they will emerge victorious from the war,” said Stephen Nix, Senior Director for Eurasia at IRI. “Our polling has consistently shown that Putin cannot dent their strong sense of morale.”  

The poll also shows that Ukraine wants to align with the West. Seventy-seven percent of Ukrainians would support joining the EU relative to a customs union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Similarly, 77% stated they would vote in support of Ukraine joining NATO if a referendum were held today.

“Our data is very clear, Ukrainians believe that closer ties with the West gives them a better chance of achieving lasting peace and prosperity,” said Nix. 

Methodology     

The survey was conducted by the Sociological Group “Rating” on behalf of the Center for Insights in Survey Research of the International Republican Institute throughout Ukraine (except for the occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas) from February 17-21, 2024, through computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile telephone numbers. The total sample consists of n= 2,000 Ukrainians aged 18 and older.  The sample excludes any Ukrainians not currently in Ukraine. The survey data obtained was weighted by regional and age indicators using data by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine as of January 1, 2022.  The margin of error at the 95 percent confidence level does not exceed +/-2.2 percentage points.​ The response rate was 14 percent.    

The study was funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).    

The post IRI Ukraine Poll: Strong Majorities Believe in Victory over Russia, Support European Union and NATO Membership appeared first on International Republican Institute.

What are the issues?    

Last month, Senegal – historically a bright spot of democracy on the continent – was thrown into turmoil when outgoing president Macky Sall cancelled elections scheduled for February 25, inducing the parliament to delay the contest until the end of 2024. Following widespread domestic protests and international alarm, the drama took a more positive turn on February 17, when the Supreme Court annulled the cancellation and ordered the president to hold the election “as soon as possible.” The new election date is now slated for March 24 to ensure President Sall ends his mandate by April 2, in line with the constitution. President Sall has indicated that he will comply.  

Why should we care? 

As election day approaches, the 19 approved candidates vying for the presidency find themselves operating within a condensed timeline to mobilize supporters. This marks the culmination of weeks of uncertainty and inaugurates a fiercely competitive race. Anticipated to be the most closely contested election in Senegal since gaining independence over six decades ago. 

What can be done?  

The political upheaval is yet another in a long series of crises for West Africa – a strategic area on a continent that America cannot afford to ignore. Yet despite numerous setbacks, including coups, troubled elections, and violence from insurgents, Senegal’s recent troubles also point to sources of democratic strength in the region that Washington cannot afford to let wither on the vine. 

The post Election Watch: Senegal appeared first on International Republican Institute.

ওয়াশিংটন, ডিসি: ২০২৪ সালের ৭ জানুয়ারির জাতীয় সংসদ নির্বাচনের আগে, চলাকালীন ও পরে সম্ভাব্য নির্বাচনী সহিংসতা পরিস্থিতি পর্যবেক্ষণের জন্য বাংলাদেশে প্রেরন করা ন্যাশনাল ডেমোক্রেটিক ইনস্টিটিউট (এনডিআই) এবং ইন্টারন্যাশনাল রিপাবলিকান ইনস্টিটিউট (আইআরআই) টেকনিক্যাল অ্যাসেসমেন্ট মিশন (টিএএম) আজ তার চূড়ান্ত প্রতিবেদন প্রকাশ করেছে।

এই প্রতিবেদনে বিভিন্ন ধরনের নির্বাচনী সহিংসতার বিষয়ভিত্তিক বিশ্লেষণ তুলে ধরা হয়েছে এবং ভবিষ্যতে নির্বাচনে সহিংসতার ঝুঁকি প্রশমন, আন্তর্জাতিক সহযোগিতা এবং বাংলাদেশের সার্বভৌমত্বের প্রতি শ্রদ্ধা রেখে আইআরআই ও এনডিআই’র তুলনামূলক অভিজ্ঞতার ভিত্তিতে বাংলাদেশ নির্বাচন কমিশন, সরকারের নির্বাহী ও আইন বিভাগ, রাজনৈতিক দল, সুশীল সমাজ এবং অন্যান্য অংশীজনদের কাছে সুপারিশ অন্তর্ভুক্ত করা হয়েছে।

মিশন সদস্যগণ অবগত হয়েছেন যে,. ২০২৪ সালের নির্বাচনের সময়কাল, প্রচারের সময়কাল, নির্বাচনের দিনসহ অন্যান্য সময়ে, পূর্ববর্তী নির্বাচন চক্রের তুলনায় শারীরিক এবং অনলাইন সহিংসতা কম হয়েছে। এটি হয়েছে প্রাথমিকভাবে দেশব্যাপী কার্যকর নির্বাচনী প্রতিযোগিতার অনুপস্থিতির কারনে এবং দেশের নিরাপত্তায় সরকারের বাড়তি নজর দেয়ায়। তা সত্ত্বেও, জানুয়ারির নির্বাচনের গুণগত মান ক্ষুণ্ন হয়েছে যেসব ঘটনার কারণে তা হল রাষ্ট্র, শাসক দল, এবং বিরোধীদের সহিংসতা, সেইসাথে একটি প্রাক-নির্বাচন পরিবেশ দ্বারা চিহ্নিত করা হয় শূন্য-সমষ্টির রাজনীতি, রাজনৈতিক নেতাদের মধ্যে সহিংসতা, নাগরিক স্বাধীনতার সংকোচন, এবং বাক স্বাধীনতা ও সংগঠিত হওয়ার স্বাধীনতার অবনতি।

এনডিআইয়ের এশিয়া-প্যাসিফিক অঞ্চলের আঞ্চলিক পরিচালক মনপ্রীত সিং আনন্দ বলেন, ‘এই প্রতিবেদনটি বাংলাদেশের ভবিষ্যতে আরও শান্তিপূর্ণ নির্বাচনের জন্য একটি মূল্যবান রোডম্যাপ হিসেবে অবদান রাখবে। অহিংস রাজনৈতিক পরিবেশ গড়ে তোলার লক্ষ্যে রাজনৈতিক দল, সরকার এবং নাগরিক সমাজসহ সামাজিক-রাজনৈতিক পরিমন্ডল জুড়ে নেতাদের নির্বাচনী রাজনীতির নিয়ম, অনুশীলন এবং নিয়মগুলির সংস্কার করার প্রয়োজন রয়েছে।

আইআরআই’র এশিয়া-প্রশান্ত মহাসাগরীয় বিভাগের জ্যেষ্ঠ পরিচালক জোহানা কাও বলেন, ‘নির্বাচনে সহিংসতা নাগরিকদের অংশগ্রহণের ক্ষেত্রে একটি প্রধান প্রতিবন্ধক। বাংলাদেশের নির্বাচনকে পুরোপুরি অংশগ্রহণমূলক করতে হলে সব পক্ষকে অহিংস রাজনীতিকে প্রাধান্য দিতে হবে।

বাংলাদেশে অবস্থানকালে টিএএম-এর স্বীকৃত পাঁচজন দীর্ঘমেয়াদী বিশ্লেষক নির্বাচন ও সরকারি কর্মকর্তা, নিরাপত্তা কর্মী, রাজনৈতিক পরিমন্ডলে রাজনৈতিক দলের নেতা, সাংবাদিক, নাগরিক সমাজের সংগঠনসহ যুবক, নারী, প্রতিবন্ধী ব্যক্তি এবং ধর্মীয় সংখ্যালঘুদের পাশাপাশি স্বীকৃত আন্তর্জাতিক পর্যবেক্ষক মিশনের সাথে বৈঠক করেছেন।

এই মিশনটি একটি যৌথ প্রাক-নির্বাচনী মূল্যায়ন মিশন (পিইএএম) অনুসরণ করে যা এনডিআই এবং আইআরআই ৮ থেকে ১১ অক্টোবর, ২০২৩ পর্যন্ত পরিচালনা করেছিল। পিইএএম-এর পর্যবেক্ষণে কারিগরি মূল্যায়নের কাঠামো ও পরিধি সম্পর্কে অবহিত করা হয়, যা বাংলাদেশের আইন অনুযায়ী এবং ২০০৫ সালে জাতিসংঘে অনুমোদিত আন্তর্জাতিক নির্বাচন পর্যবেক্ষণের নীতিমালার ঘোষণাপত্রের সাথে সামঞ্জস্যপূর্ণ ছিল।

আইআরআই এবং এনডিআই হ’ল নির্দলীয়, বেসরকারী সংস্থা যা বিশ্বব্যাপী গণতান্ত্রিক প্রতিষ্ঠান এবং অনুশীলনকে সমর্থন ও শক্তিশালী করে। ইনস্টিটিউটগুলো গত ৩০ বছরে ৫০টিরও বেশি দেশে সম্মিলিতভাবে ২০০টিরও বেশি নির্বাচন পর্যবেক্ষণ করেছে।

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Washington, D.C.- The joint National Democratic Institute (NDI) and International Republican Institute (IRI) Technical Assessment Mission (TAM) deployed to Bangladesh to monitor potential electoral violence conditions before, during, and after the country’s January 7, 2024 parliamentary elections released its final report today.

The document provides a thematic analysis of different types of election violence and includes recommendations to the Bangladesh Election Commission, the executive and legislative branches of government, political parties, civil society, and other stakeholders based on IRI’s and NDI’s comparative experience, to mitigate the risks of violence in future elections, in the furtherance of international cooperation and with respect for the sovereignty of Bangladesh.

The mission found that the 2024 election period, including the campaign period, election day and immediate aftermath, had less physical and online violence compared to previous election cycles, primarily due to the absence of nationwide partisan competition and the state’s increased focus on election security. However, the TAM also found that the quality of the January election was undermined by incidents of state, ruling party, and opposition violence, as well as a pre-election environment characterized by increased political polarization, violence among political actors, contracting civic space, and worsening freedoms of expression and association.

“This report provides a valuable roadmap for more peaceful elections in Bangladesh’s future,” said Manpreet Singh Anand, NDI’s Regional Director for the Asia-Pacific. “Leaders across the sociopolitical spectrum — including political parties, the government, and civil society – have a responsibility to reform the rules, practices, and norms of electoral politics toward nonviolence.”

“Election violence is a key deterrent of citizen participation,” said Johanna Kao, IRI’s Senior Director for the Asia-Pacific Division. “For Bangladesh’s elections to be fully inclusive and participatory, all sides need to prioritize nonviolent politics.”

During its stay in Bangladesh, the TAM’s five accredited long-term analysts met with election and government officials, security actors, political party leaders from across the political spectrum, journalists, civil society organizations including those focusing on youth, women, persons with disabilities, and religious minorities, as well as with accredited international observer missions.

This mission follows a joint pre-election assessment mission (PEAM) that NDI and IRI conducted from October 8 to 11, 2023. The observations from the PEAM informed the structure and scope of the technical assessment, which was conducted in accordance with the laws of Bangladesh and consistent with the Declaration of Principles for International Election Observation, endorsed in 2005 at the United Nations.

IRI and NDI are nonpartisan, nongovernmental organizations that support and strengthen democratic institutions and practices worldwide. The Institutes have collectively observed more than 200 elections in more than 50 countries over the last 30 years.

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Yerevan, Armenia – A new nationwide poll conducted in Armenia by the International Republican Institute’s (IRI) Center for Insights in Survey Research (CISR) found an increasingly negative view of Russia and strong support for the government response to refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh.

The IRI survey found that 66% of the public views relations with Russia as negative, compared to 49% who felt the same way in March 2023. “More people in Armenia see Russia and the Putin regime as a threat to the security and political stability of their country,” said Stephen Nix, Senior Director for Eurasia at IRI.

The poll also showed that 73% of Armenians support the way the government has been handling the refugee crisis. “Renewed hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh created new challenges for Armenia with an influx of refugees in the last few years,” said Nix. “Our data shows that the people are pleased with the way the government is handling this situation and increasingly believe the country is headed in the right direction.” 

In addition, more people in Armenia feel optimistic about the country’s direction according to IRI’s latest poll. When asked, 50% of adults said Armenia was moving in the right direction.

Methodology 

The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute’s Center for Insights in Survey Research by Breavis.  Data was collected via telephone (CATI) administered interviews throughout Armenia between December 13 and December 22, 2023. ​ The sample consisted of 1,508 permanent residents of Armenia 18 and older. The achieved sample was weighted for age, gender, and community type according to the 2023 Yearbook of the Statistical Committee of Armenia, as well as to the average of IRI CATI polls in Armenia for education. The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for the full sample. The response rate was 28%.

The post IRI Armenia Poll: Increasing Negative Views of Russia, Strong Support for Nagorno-Karabakh Refugee Response appeared first on International Republican Institute.

Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan – A new poll conducted by the International Republican Institute’s (IRI) Center for Insights in Survey Research (CISR) in Kyrgyzstan shows a majority of people strongly back Kyrgyz as the official state language, an increase in support for younger candidates, and a rise in undecided voters for the next parliamentary elections in 2026.

When asked about the Law on the State Language of the Kyrgyz Republic, which mandates Kyrgyz to be used as the official state language at all state and government entities, local self-government bodies, and private companies, 76% of adults said they strongly supported it.

“The overwhelming support for the state language law demonstrates that Kyrgyz citizens are embracing their national identity as an independent state,” said Stephen Nix, Senior Director for Eurasia at IRI.

In Kyrgyzstan, there is an increasing desire for younger candidates to run for office. Thirty-six percent of adults said they would be more likely to vote for someone who is 35 years old or younger. This represents an 18-percentage point jump from the previous poll.  

The new poll also found that there was a 12-percentage point increase in adults not knowing or not decided on who they would vote for if parliamentary elections were held next Sunday.  

“This increase in non-declared voters suggests an opening for political parties to attract new voters through increased voter outreach before the next elections,” said Nix.

Methodology   

The survey was conducted on behalf of IRI’s Center for Insights in Survey Research by SIAR Research and Consulting between December 21, 2023, and January 19, 2024, through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ homes. The sample consists of 1,500 residents of Kyrgyzstan aged 18+, and the data was weighted for age and gender. The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.5 points at the 95 percent confidence level, and the response rate was 66%. This survey was made possible by the generous support of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).

The post IRI Kyrgyzstan Poll: Strong Majority Want Kyrgyz as Official Language, Increased Support for Younger Candidates, Rise in Undecided Voters appeared first on International Republican Institute.

Washington, DC – The International Republican Institute (IRI) released the following statement on the second anniversary of Russia’s war on Ukraine:

“In the two years since Vladimir Putin decided to launch his war of aggression against the people of Ukraine, the world has seen his determination to spread chaos and violence. The corrupt and criminal regime in Moscow has targeted civilians by attacking schools, neighborhoods, hospitals, and homes. Russia’s military has also tortured, raped, kidnapped, and executed many innocent Ukrainians while filling mass graves in its unprovoked attempt to conquer its democratic neighbor.

“We have also seen the strength and courage of millions of Ukrainians who continue to fight valiantly for their homeland and future. Their steely resolve has so far prevented Putin from succeeding in his quest to rebuild the Soviet Empire and threaten other parts of Europe. Now is not the time for Ukraine’s democratic allies to become complacent. We must not splinter our unified opposition to Russia in this conflict and instead, help provide the necessary resources for Ukraine to defend its freedom.

“The International Republican Institute will continue to proudly stand with the Ukrainian people and support their hopes for a free and democratic destiny.”

The post IRI Statement on the Second Anniversary of Russia’s War on Ukraine appeared first on International Republican Institute.

Washington, DC – The International Republican Institute (IRI) released the following statement on the death of Russian opposition leader and recipient of IRI’s 2022 John S. McCain Freedom Award, Alexei Navalny:

“IRI is saddened by the passing of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny and condemns the evil treatment that led to his untimely death.

“Navalny was a champion of democracy and a freedom fighter for his fellow Russians. He provided a powerful voice for those who had theirs taken away and history will remember him as a defiant figure who pulled back the curtains of corruption inside the Kremlin.

“This devastating news is a reminder that Vladimir Putin is an enemy of civilization who will go to great lengths to target and kill his political opposition. Through poisonings and prison sentences he unmasks his own fragility and insecure hold on power. The people of Russia deserve to live in a free and democratic society in which they control their own destiny without fear of punishment from the government.

“IRI once again calls for the immediate release of Vladimir Kara-Murza and all other political prisoners in Russia unjustly jailed for their opinions and beliefs.”

The post IRI Statement on Alexei Navalny appeared first on International Republican Institute.

Malé, Maldives— A new nationwide poll of the Maldives by the International Republican Institute’s (IRI) Center for Insights in Survey Research (CISR) reveals strong support for a decentralized government,greater effectiveness of local councils, and increased women’s participation in the political process.  

The poll found that 79% of adults support a decentralized system of governance. This represents an increase of five percentage points from IRI’s previous Maldives poll.

“Citizens continue to reinforce their desire for a greater say in the decision-making process for their islands,” said Steve Cima, Regional Director for South Asia at IRI. “Policymakers should continue to build upon this by prioritizing measures empowering local councils to deliver on community expectations.” 

The survey also found that Maldivians cite increasing local council effectiveness on several issues, including waste management and infrastructure maintenance. However, citizens also note that councils’ lack of capacity is the single greatest obstacle to their ability to function more effectively.  

Maldivians also want women to actively participate in the political process. Eighty-nine percent say it is important for women to be involved in political decision-making and 71% say it would be good if more women were elected to the government.

“Women are underrepresented in politics, despite a majority of Maldivians saying it would be good if more women were elected to government,” said Cima. “This overwhelming public support reinforces IRI’s programmatic efforts to empower and build the capacity of elected women leaders.” 

Methodology  

The survey was conducted on behalf of IRI’s Center for Insights in Survey Research by the Institute for Research and Innovation, Villa College between November 21 and December 24, 2023. Data was collected using a multi-stage stratified probability sample through in-person, in-home interviews. The sample consists of 1,266 respondents aged 18 and older and is representative of resident Maldivian adults nationally, excluding the 6% of the adult population residing on resort islands. The margin of error for the mid-range of the full sample does not exceed ±2.7 points at the 95% confidence level. The response rate was 71%.

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